Bush Knew

No, I'm not talking about 9/11, or even about the absence of weapons of mass destructions. He knew — or should have known — that an invasion of Iraq stood a very real chance of turning into chaos and disaster.

The U.S. government conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 that anticipated an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, and even then chaos might ensue. In its "Desert Crossing" games, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials assumed the high troop levels would be needed to keep order, seal borders and take care of other security needs. ... There are currently about 144,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, down from a peak of about 160,000 in January.

The officials predicted that a war, even with 400,000 troops, would be neither a cakewalk nor (quoth George Tenet) a slam dunk.

The war games looked at "worst case" and "most likely" scenarios after a war that removed then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power. Some are similar to what actually occurred after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003:

• "A change in regimes does not guarantee stability," the 1999 seminar briefings said. "A number of factors including aggressive neighbors, fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines, and chaos created by rival forces bidding for power could adversely affect regional stability." ...
• "Also, some participants believe that no Arab government will welcome the kind of lengthy U.S. presence that would be required to install and sustain a democratic government."
• "A long-term, large-scale military intervention may be at odds with many coalition partners."

All of this, and more, fell on deaf ears. That's because we have a President who rules by intuition rather than reason; who prefers faith over facts; who thinks it's better to be a decider than a thinker and a planner; who mistakes swagger for courage; and who, inevitably, paid as much attention to a crucial briefing on a potentially ruinous war as to multiple pre-9/11 warnings about a major terrorist attack against the U.S.

It's hard to imagine that a majority of voters can tolerate two more years of this incurious, blundering stumblebum staggering his way through history, without them placing meaningful checks on his powers. We'll find out tomorrow.

Comments

[Jeff The Poustman]

Oh come on, Rogier, he's doing a heckuva job.

(http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=heckuva)